We live in what is called a rain shadow. When I get any radar maps from weather.com where you can rewind back, as you start play they will show systems coming in with a hole of clear skies where we live. As soon as it is forecasting it thinks we will get the rain but we rarely do. Ours is probably a difficult challenge for forecasting to truly work in micro climate areas like ours. I’d welcome helping the program develop.
Take a look at Zambretti Forecaster
If you use WeatherFlow2MQTT for Home Assistant then it is already there.
There are ones for Node-Red if you would prefer to use it.
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How long have you had your Tempest station setup? The data from it will help train the WeatherFlow servers and improve the forecasting as time goes on.
sometimes it helps to read a 25% change of any rain during the day as 75% of no rain at all during the day. Its a mental trick, but some are focused on the bad things that they forget about the good things. It skews our perception of the statistics.
As you are living in rainshadow, you have less rain. If that shadow is big enough (eg >5km) it might be taken care of in calculated predictions.
All tempest could do, based on gathered data from your station is lower that calculated prediction. So instead of for example 25%, you’ll get 20% in your forecast.
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